Is hiring back in 2025? Depends on who you ask.
Companies are talking about growth, but job seekers aren’t feeling it. Layoffs are still popping up in headlines, but are historically quite low. Quits are down. Job postings are stagnant. And switching jobs no longer guarantees a pay bump.
So… what’s really going on?
We hosted a LinkedIn Live conversation with John Arnold (Managing Partner at Celarity), Connor Duffy (Manager of Client Experience at Celarity), and Nicholas Petroski (Founder of Promethean Research) to peel back the layers of the 2025 job market.
From salary freezes and short-term contracts to agencies embracing AI and companies leaning harder on consultants, this conversation covered the current state of hiring, what might come next, and what job seekers and employers need to be thinking about right now.
We’ve recapped some of the biggest insights from the event below but you can always watch the entire event on-demand here.
Q: What’s the current state of the job market?
John: It’s pretty frozen — and it’s been this way for a while. We’re seeing historically low quits, stagnant job postings, and hiring rates that haven’t moved much in months. Even people who do switch jobs aren’t getting the salary bumps we used to see. Job seekers and job holders are both getting around 3–3.5% wage growth. That tells you how tight things are.
Connor: Compared to 2021 or 2022, it’s wild. Back then, job switchers could expect a 10–15% salary increase. Like you said, now it’s closer to 3%. People who want to make a move feel stuck and frustrated, but companies aren’t giving them many opportunities to take the leap.
Q: What are companies doing to fill roles?
Nick: It’s all reactive. Most agencies aren’t hiring proactively — they’re backfilling when someone leaves, and even then, they’re going with contractors over full-time staff. It’s all about flexibility. If you can’t forecast revenue, you can’t commit to a long-term hire.
Connor: And that’s not just agencies — we’re hearing the same from many of our clients. They’re telling us: “We’ll hire if we absolutely have to, but we’re not planning ahead right now.” So we’re also seeing the reactive vs. proactive, the shift to shorter contracts, and more project-based work.
Q: What roles or skills are in demand right now?
Connor: Paid media is still huge. It’s close to revenue and often serves as the sales engine, especially for lean teams. We’ve also seen a surge in e-commerce roles lately — not just hiring for new growth, but cleaning up messy builds from the pandemic rush. Companies are realizing their e-comm strategies can’t be “set it and forget it” anymore.
Nick: Yeah, those pandemic-era e-comm sites are now showing their cracks. We’re seeing demand for refactoring, re-platforming, and smarter UX. But overall, even those roles are coming in as contracts or one-off projects, not FTEs.
Q: How is AI affecting hiring and skills expectations?
Nick: AI is hitting certain skillsets hard — copywriting and general dev work, in particular. But what’s becoming more valuable is specialization. A copywriter who deeply knows their industry is irreplaceable. The same goes for UX, strategy, and storytelling. You have to do the hard stuff AI can’t do.
John: That ties into offshoring, too. We’re seeing a lot of dev, UX, and design work go overseas — and those offshore firms are getting more sophisticated. Some of them are even starting to compete head-on with U.S. agencies for work.
Nick: Yeah, and what we’re not seeing offshored are the high-touch, client-facing roles. The people who are building relationships, managing projects, adapting on the fly — that kind of work still needs to happen close to the client. Same goes for strategy roles and those who are shaping the creative direction — not just executing on it. The more original, market-specific, and collaborative the role is, the more likely it’s staying close to home.
Q: What hiring challenges are leaders running into?
Connor: Everyone’s frustrated. Candidates feel like their resumes are getting lost in the void. Hiring managers are overwhelmed by volume — 400+ applicants and no one to screen them. So they fall back on who they know, or who someone refers, because they just don’t have the capacity.
John: There’s a lack of “humanness” in hiring right now. AI filters are creating noise on both sides. Good people are being filtered out by flawed systems, and hiring teams are buried under an avalanche of resumes. It’s creating real friction in a process that’s already hard.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2025?
As we move through the rest of 2025, expect to see more short-term contracts, continued contractor usage, and a growing emphasis on roles that directly impact revenue. Companies will continue to tread carefully, investing where returns are clearest — in areas like paid media, e-commerce, and strategic project work.
Specialists who bring depth, originality, and human connection to their work — the kind of talent AI and automation can’t easily replicate — will become increasingly valuable. The market may still feel murky, but opportunities are out there for the people and teams who can navigate the noise.
About Celarity
At Celarity, we’ve seen hiring trends rise, fall, and turn inside out over the past 30 years — and we know how to help teams find clarity in uncertain times.
Whether you’re looking for contract support, a full-time hire, or strategic HR consulting, we’re here to help you build the kind of teams and careers that last. As the most award-winning Staffing, Recruiting, and HR Consulting firm — with Minnesota roots and national reach — our mission is simple: Create Happy Careers.
